While coverage of the GOP convention permeated the discussion in the United States, the rapidly approaching primary elections in Israel provoked a number of salient articles. Also of note are the talks between Nicolas Sarkozy and Bashar Al Assad which were perhaps exceeded in attention by the development of peace negotiations between Israel in Palestine in Italy.
I briefly mentioned the principal contenders for prime minister in Israel in a post a few weeks ago, and it appears that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will win the September 16 Kadima primary in the first round. A recent Haaretz poll confirms this, showing her with a 20 point lead, although 28 percent of the electorate remains undecided. A strong caveat has to be added, as high-level party support and getting out the vote can play a significant role in the outcome, as Haaretz notes.
In a second election round between Livni and Mofaz, the difference between them remains 20 percent. All Mofaz can hope for is a rerun of the polls fiasco in the Labor primary between Peres and Pertz in November 2005. The polls predicted a victory for Peres but on election day his voters remained at home while Peretz' divisions transported his voters to the polls. Today, too, most of the functionaries and large Kadima faction heads support Mofaz, which could narrow the difference. But the mood is with Livni.
The article goes on to explain that Livni has a significant advantage in the Arab community and is viewed more favorably by the media. Moreover, her grassroots organization is superior and appears to be growing at the expense of that of Shaul Mofaz, the Transportation Minister.
Despite this substantial lead, at least one party official believes the margin of victory will be much smaller.
Asked by ISN Security Watch to respond to this week's poll of party members, that puts Livni 20 percentage points up on Mofaz, a Kadima member of Knesset (MK) identified with the party's right said: "Most of the press support Livni so they try to present a picture that Tzipi will win, but I'm not sure at all." ISN Security Watch agreed to protect the MK's identity.
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He believes that Mofaz will win the primary because "most of the Kadima membership came to our party from the Likud. [Their opinions] are closer to Mofaz' concepts and policies." He believes that Mofaz is also in a better position to unify the party post-primary.
Likud senior official apparently disagree, and are preparing for a Kadima ticket headed by Livni according to Attila Somfalvi in Ynetnews. His sources cited internal pessimistic estimates by the Mofaz campaign and the shift of party support to Livni from Mofaz created by Ronnie Bar-On and Tzachi Hanegbi.
However, as Gerald Steinberg explained, it is unlikely that she will be able to form a coalition. Dr. Dominic Moran of ISN Security Watch expressed a similar viewpoint, citing Likud's recalcitrance, as well as a lack of support from UTJ and Shas (current members of the coalition). Interestingly, an unnamed Livni adviser agrees saying:
The political adviser from Livni's camp also believes the formation of a new coalition will prove impossible, forcing fresh elections in which she will run on her corruption-free image, promoting an agenda of political renewal.
But Somfalvi has noticed a shift in message from the Livni campaign toward a focus on a new government and a coalition. This is in contrast to previous sentiments expressed by campaign members like the one above, indicating, as Somfalvi points out, either a consolidation of message or a shift in belief. I haven't seen any polling data to confirm this, and the most recent poll shows Netanyahu winning 36 to 24.6 over Livni. However, a reluctance to go to elections from both Labor and Shas could tip the balance in the formation of a new government.
“I do not see willingness to go to elections,” a senior political figure says. “Livni’s associates are already starting to talk about the possibility of forming a government even with Shas, rely on a minority government, or perhaps add Shas later. These calculations convey a sense of a different atmosphere.”
Moreover, sources in the political establishment are estimating that the Pensioners’ Party, as well as Labor, both pulverized in the polls, won’t rush into new elections.
In the second part of his political analysis Somfalvi reveals that Likud officials are increasingly worried about the possibility of a coalition being formed. The scenario they worry about is a further fall in the polls for Labor after Livni's primary victory, meaning Labor will want to avoid having to face elections.
The talk in Israel however is that Olmert is trying to undermine the coalition in order to weaken the power of his Kadima successor, and preserve his power. Unnamed senior officials pointed to his intent to introduce a bill evacuating settlers from the West Bank and his backing of a proposed 2009 budget as an attempt to sow "discord" among the party (both Livni and Mofaz oppose the bill). I doubt this will significantly affect the likelihood of the formation of a coalition, though it certainly appears Olmert would like to stay in power for as long as possible.
Barring any major changes, I see Livni winning, though not in a landslide. I really don't have enough knowledge of Israeli politics to assess the potential for her to forge a coalition, but I am inclined to think she will not be able to, unless she gains significant cross-party momentum from the primary (which likely won't happen unless she blows out Mofaz).
Once the primary is over I will be looking more into her policies, but for now the ISN Security Watch article and this article are worth reading.
