The Other Elections

With the hasty resignation of scandal-plagued Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Israel has been suddenly thrown into election season. There has been a glaring lack of reporting in US papers and blogs on the evolving election, despite its potentially significant effect on several conflicts and relationships in the region, notably the future of Palestine, and tensions with Iran. Assuming Ahmadinejad is reelected in the 2009 Iranian election (a potentially unsafe assumption, as inflation continues to rise unabated, and Iran's new compromise Economy Minister and central bank resist Ahmadinejad's more radical economic policies) the result of the Israeli election will likely determine whether or not the region is embroiled in another war. Some observers have made a compelling argument that the result of the 2009 Iranian election will determine US and Israeli action, however, I see an emboldened Netanyahu coming off a decisive victory over Kadima escalating regardless of whether Ahmadinejad remains in office. An Obama administration could very well mitigate the impact of an aggressive Israel (lead by Mofaz or Netanyahu) as strikes on Iran are dependent on US compliance. The confluence of these three elections represents a potential turning point for one of the central conflicts of the region. Until all three have concluded, expect little progress on any of the major issues in the region, as all three nations will be carefully calculating how to strengthen their position and work with new governments.



Election Roundup

Most polls predict Tzipi Livni, the moderate and pragmatic Foreign Minister, will win the Kadima primary over Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, who takes a much harder line on Iran. Regardless of who wins, Kadima will most likely be unable to form a majority in the Knesset, meaning elections will have to take place, in February or March.

For more on the process, and the likelihood of a Kadima coalition see this interview with Gerald Steinberg of Bar Ilan University.

Iran's election remains a bit more uncertain at this point, as no major opposition candidates have emerged to challenge Ahmadinejad. It appears the reformists will not pose much of a threat, as Khatami has declared he will not run.



I intend to write more about the Israeli candidates and their likely effect on Israel's relationship with Syria and Lebanon, as well as the United States.