Hopefully the UAE will set an example for other Gulf states to open embassies, but I suspect religious tension as well as concerns about the stability of Iraq will continue to obstruct further reconciliation between Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. I expect to see the Bush administration tout this as a sign of progress in Iraq, but absent political progress in the Parliament and the Cabinent, the situation is not likely to improve greatly.
The debate regarding the Bush-al Maliki security agreement indicates Iraqis espeically al-Sistani and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq are growing more poignant and agressive in their assessments of the United States.
Undoubtedly the ISCI, al-Sistani and Sadr will react harshly to the leaked details of the agreement.
Patrick Cockburn of the Independent has the details:
"Iraqi officials fear that the accord, under which US troops would occupy permanent bases, conduct military operations, arrest Iraqis and enjoy immunity from Iraqi law, will destabilise Iraq's position in the Middle East and lay the basis for unending conflict in their country."
Already the agreement has frightened Iraqi politicians but Cockburn argues Maliki will cave to the United States in order to stay in power. I think he overestimates Maliki's docility and I expect to see Maliki due to pressure from al-Sistani in particular demand some changes, but I doubt the agreement will be put to referendum.
This should make for a very tense yet busy few weeks.
Update:
Iraq stands to lose $20 - $50 billion in US aid should the security agreement fall through. This weakens my argument regarding Maliki somewhat, but Juan Cole agrees the agreement could still fail due to widespread opposition and concerns regarding sovereignty.
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